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Prediction for CME (2021-04-26T19:39:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2021-04-26T19:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16801/-1 CME Note: CME observed in W of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-04-26T19:39Z, faintly visible as a partial halo in the south of SOHO LASCO/C3 by 2021-04-2706:18Z. Associated with a large filament eruption from south Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 304 between 2021-04-26T15:00-20:00Z (with biggest lift around 2021-04-26T18:00Z). CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-01T12:50Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-01T02:00Z Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Prediction Method Note: Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 2.2 Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Space weather advisor:Lead Time: 79.50 hour(s) Difference: 10.83 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-04-28T05:20Z |
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